Dear Readers,

Welcome back to The Global Brief, your trusted window into the shifting dynamics of global power and geopolitics. In today’s issue, we dissect former U.S. President Donald Trump’s bold claim that several nations — including Pakistan — are conducting nuclear tests, and his call for America to restart its own after more than three decades.

In a CBS 60 Minutes interview, Trump alleged that multiple nations — Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan — are actively testing nuclear weapons while the United States remains the only one abstaining.

Trump’s statement surprised many, especially his mention of Pakistan, a country that has not publicly tested a nuclear device since 1998, following India’s Pokhran-II series. Islamabad has made no official comment on Trump’s remarks, leaving analysts debating whether he was referring to covert subcritical tests or simply making a political point.

Since 1992, the United States has upheld a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, relying instead on advanced computer simulations to maintain its stockpile. This has been a cornerstone of America’s arms control leadership — until now.

Trump’s recent comments appear to signal a radical departure from that policy.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One earlier, he declared:

He hinted that preparations for renewed testing are already underway, though he declined to specify when or where such tests might occur.

If the U.S. resumes nuclear testing, it would mark the first detonation since September 1992, when the Cold War’s end brought hopes of permanent restraint. Analysts warn that such a move could trigger a new global arms race, as rival powers respond in kind.

In parallel, Russia has escalated its posture by withdrawing from a plutonium disposal agreement with Washington. That 2000 pact had required both countries to safely dispose of 34 tonnes of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for about 17,000 nuclear warheads.
By nullifying the deal, President Vladimir Putin effectively reopened the door to unrestricted nuclear buildup.

Trump’s inclusion of Pakistan in his list of nuclear testers raised eyebrows across South Asia.
No credible evidence exists that Islamabad has resumed underground testing, but satellite images from the past few years have shown activity near historical test sites in Balochistan’s Chagai region.

Experts suggest this could involve non-explosive diagnostics or maintenance work, not actual detonations. Still, the geopolitical implications are serious.

According to Dr. Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace:

Pakistan and India maintain a mutual deterrence equilibrium, both possessing approximately 170–180 nuclear warheads each. Any suggestion of renewed testing could rekindle tensions in an already fragile strategic environment.

During the same interview, Trump claimed the U.S. holds more nuclear weapons than any other nation, adding:

While his figure is rhetorical, current estimates by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) list:

Analysts fear that once Washington resumes testing, both Moscow and Beijing will accelerate their own modernization programs — including Russia’s Poseidon underwater drone and China’s hypersonic glide vehicles.
For North Korea, which already conducts frequent underground tests, a renewed American program could be used to justify further escalations.

Trump’s stance comes amid the steady erosion of arms control treaties.
The INF Treaty — which eliminated an entire class of mid-range missiles — was terminated in 2019. Meanwhile, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), though signed by 187 nations, has never entered into force due to non-ratification by key states including the U.S. and China.

Resuming tests now would effectively nullify the CTBT’s credibility and encourage other nuclear states to follow suit.

Supporters of Trump’s view argue that the U.S. cannot rely indefinitely on computer modeling to ensure the reliability of its aging nuclear arsenal.
They claim controlled testing could confirm the safety and performance of warheads as they undergo modernization.

A senior Pentagon official, quoted anonymously by The Wall Street Journal, said:

Reports indicate renewed technical readiness at the Nevada National Security Site, historically used for underground tests. However, there is no official announcement or timeline for any new detonations.

Reactions to Trump’s comments have been mixed across the international landscape.

Environmental groups have also warned of radiation hazards, environmental degradation, and public health impacts that could result from renewed nuclear explosions.

If nuclear testing resumes globally, it could erode decades of progress, potentially inviting a cascade of underground and atmospheric detonations worldwide.

Whether Trump’s statements translate into action or remain rhetoric, they have already reshaped the global conversation on nuclear deterrence.
For the first time since the 1990s, the world is openly debating not how to disarm — but who will test next.

As the U.S., Russia, and China continue to redefine the balance of nuclear power, the fragile peace that has endured for three decades faces an unprecedented test of endurance and diplomacy.

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— The Global Brief Editorial Team

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