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Today’s edition dives into one of the most consequential diplomatic engagements of the year — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit to India and what it means for global power dynamics, energy markets, defence partnerships, and India’s strategic autonomy.

Let’s unpack the layers behind the headlines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Delhi — welcomed personally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi — is far more than a ceremonial gesture. It symbolizes a partnership that has endured decades of geopolitical turbulence and continues to adapt to shifting global realities.

But beneath the visuals of warm embraces and red-carpet moments lies a story driven by numbers, national interests, and global strategy.

Russia’s renewed courtship of India begins with simple arithmetic:

Before the Ukraine war, Russia supplied only around 2.5% of India’s oil needs. Western sanctions transformed that overnight. With Europe shutting its doors to Russian crude, India stepped in — pushing Russian oil’s share to nearly 35% of India’s imports at its peak.

India benefited from steep discounts. Russia benefited from a stable buyer.
Washington, however, was far from pleased.

When the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods earlier this year, it signaled growing frustration: Washington sees Indian purchases of Russian oil as indirectly strengthening Moscow’s war efforts.

As a result, India reduced its Russian oil orders.
Putin’s mission now is clear: convince India to keep the oil flowing.

For Russia, defence cooperation with India isn’t just business — it’s legacy.

Since Soviet times, India has relied heavily on Russian technology, aircraft, and missile systems. Though India has diversified in recent years, a large part of its arsenal is still Russian-made.

Currently:

With tensions simmering in the region, particularly after Pakistan’s acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth jets, India is evaluating advanced Russian capabilities such as:

Yet Russia is struggling with manufacturing delays due to sanctions and wartime demand. Deliveries of even existing S-400 units have already slipped to 2026.

Modi is expected to push for clear, guaranteed delivery timelines.

Russia is battling labour shortages, worsened by war mobilization and emigration.
India, with its vast pool of trained technical workers, is an attractive supplier.
Putin is likely to discuss structured workforce agreements, something Moscow has prioritized with other Asian states too.

Putin’s India visit is also a message.

Meeting Modi shortly after high-profile engagements with Xi Jinping reinforces a narrative:

Putin wants to demonstrate that:

But while Russia leans into Asian diplomacy, many in Moscow acknowledge the cost of its estranged relationship with Europe.
For now, however, Putin is doubling down on Asia.

For Prime Minister Modi, Putin’s visit arrives at a critical moment in India’s global political journey.

India has long championed strategic autonomy — the ability to engage major powers without aligning fully with any bloc. This vision allowed Modi to maintain:

But the equation shifted dramatically when Donald Trump returned to the White House.

US-India relations have hit a rough patch due to the tariff stand-off, and Washington’s patience regarding Russian oil has worn visibly thin.

At the same time:

Modi now has to balance three competing priorities:

Putin’s visit is the first major test of how Modi intends to navigate this new geopolitical triangle.

India-Russia trade has exploded — from $8.1 billion in 2020 to $68.7 billion in 2025.
But almost all of this surge came from India’s oil purchases, heavily skewing the trade balance in Russia’s favour.

Russia sells to India:

India sells to Russia:

Indian exports struggle to penetrate Russian markets. Even in high-demand categories, sales remain low:

Modi wants to correct this imbalance by pushing:

🔹 Market access for Indian consumer goods

🔹 Tech and pharmaceutical exports

🔹 Investment opportunities for Indian conglomerates

India wants Russia to diversify imports beyond energy and defence.

India’s brief clash with Pakistan in May underscored two realities:

This drives Modi’s urgency to:

Russia may offer advanced systems, but India wants timely, transparent, and sanctions-proof commitments.

Both countries know the current relationship is shaped heavily by the war in Ukraine.
But both also know wars end — and when they do, global economic structures will reset.

India wants to be positioned early:

What Modi seeks now is not nostalgia for Soviet-era friendship. It’s a pragmatic economic strategy for the next decade.

As one trade think tank noted:

Putin’s Delhi trip is not a routine diplomatic event.
It is a snapshot of a world in transition:

This visit will influence energy routes, defence partnerships, technology supply chains, and regional security calculations for years to come.

Both leaders arrive with long wish-lists.
Both know they cannot afford strategic missteps.
And both understand that the world is watching.

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